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That drip, drip, drip you hear is not a leaky sink in the background, its the torturous political stagnation that are the dog days of summer: Congress is on vacation, the candidates are running out the clock on their campaigns as solo shows, the Olympics are on TV, and most of the pollsters are twiddling their thumbs awaiting the selection of Vice Presidents and the conventions their selves.
Translation: two weeks removed from the last post on this and the polls have moved quite little. If anything, there's been continued solidification of the base on both sides, taking states out of play for the moment until we get past the resolution of the Veepstakes and the Conventions that bookend the start of September.
That doesn't mean there's absolutely nothing to speak of, and below the jump we'll get into just that.
Follow up:
...and this is where we stand at the current time. Obama's lead has dropped a little from two weeks ago, due largely in part to a flipping in the state of Missouri, which two polls have given John McCain leads of 5 points (SurveyUSA July 30th) and 6 points (Rasmussen August 7th). Obama is running a rather underground campaign, however, and it remains to see how this will come to pass in the fall. By underground I mean instead of flashy advertising and trying to speak the loudest, he holds his own in the public light (all the while not falling off that ever-growing pedestal he is on) and runs a massive ground game. Nationally, Obama's field offices outnumber McCain's by a 3:1 margin. McCain just doesn't have the monetary firepower to compete with Obama and they have conceded as much without saying it - although denying that Obama is opening up field offices all over Indiana probably isn't a smart move.
What this ground game approach seems to be reminiscent of is from the very start of this year when Obama shocked the world by winning the Iowa Caucuses in January. The polls going into that election night stacked up with Clinton - the one with the most media coverage - leading with 30% and Obama and Edwards - the two with the stronger ground games - in second (28%) and third (26%) respectively. When the smoke cleared, ground game triumphed with Obama getting 37.58%, Edwards 29.75%, Clinton 29.47% - and the rest, as they say, is history. The basic lesson to be learned there is that a good ground game will triumph over entrenched figures and media machines. For further evidence of this, look up the two Senatorial victories in Montana (Tester over Burns) and Virginia (Webb over Allen).
It was always apparent that such an overwhelming ground game would be central to Obama's strategy and that is what has come to pass this summer so far. While as the polls turn Obama is off of his earlier summer peaks, if you asked the Democrats after the 2004 election what they would think of their next candidate being seriously competitive in the states of Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Virginia, they may have thought you delusional. If Obama's ground game pays off as well this November as it did this January, with Obama already being spotted a 50 electoral vote cushion over the 270 magic number, then the sky truly is the limit.
Coming over the next couple of weeks before the conventions, we have the potential VP roll outs, and we also have the Clintons getting involved for Obama - stumping by their selves on his behalf. I'm thinking Hillary will be a frequent visitor to places like Nevada and Appalachia - states that were her strengths in the primaries. Over the next month it will be interesting to see what, if any, impact this will have.
And now for some recent numbers...
Alaska ticks back to a 'strong' state for McCain, with a 6 point advantage (Rasmussen, July 30th).
Alabama shows McCain faltering more than Obama rising, with Obama remaining in the mid 30's but closing the gap to 13 points (Capital Survey, Aug 1) from 20+ earlier on.
Colorado, along with the Dakotas, Montana, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina really need a lot more polling and quickly.
Florida might as well be a tie, and I've been saying this for 4 weeks now. Ugh.
Michigan continues to dangle like a piece of meat in front of the McCain campaign - the latest having Obama up by 4 (Rasmussen, Aug 7). I really wonder if he'll gamble his VP pick (Romney) just to try and take one rust belt state.
Texas remains in the single digits, which is still impressive for the Obama campaign. While they are down by 8 there (Rasmussen, July 30) they are continuing to put up quite the fight there. While it might not work in November for the top of the ticket, down-ticket effects can never be underestimated.
Here's hoping in the next two weeks there will be more numbers to pour over. Until then...
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