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UPDATE: Georgia claims Russian jets targeted the important BTC Pipeline (the pipeline which is mentioned in this article) [per Reuters]
While the rest of the world is captivated with the Olympics in Beijing, Russia is playing for keeps on its southern border with the tiny nation of Georgia over the disputed South Ossetia region. Heading toward the third day of fighting, it is somewhat impressive that such a small country is picking a fight with such a vast neighbor. Russia isn't unleashing all its might on Georgia but its forces just available in the region compared to what Georgia has as a nation pose a rather daunting challenge for the Georgians. Estimates of force strengths give Georgia 33,000 troops (though the country is calling up reservists), 287 tanks, and 82 aircraft. In the area and presumably ready to deploy, Russia has 100,000 troops, 620 tanks, and 320 aircraft - though 2 of those so far have been shot down by the Georgians.
Russia has escalated the conflict by hitting targets beyond the tiny South Ossetia region. The parcel of land being fought over is not that large: about 3,900 square km. By comparison, just off to Georgia's northeast lies the formally disputed region of Chechnya, which covers 15,300 square km. That conflict showed that Russia is rather determined to hold on to every bit of land it can in the area, especially since the neighboring Caspian Sea holds the world's 3rd largest oil and gas reserves.
That latter fact leads us into some deeper analysis of what may be going on here. Follow the jump, and click on the map.
Follow up:
Click the map for a larger view
In Soviet times as today, the Caspian Sea and Baku were important as energy sources, again with the world's third largest oil reserves sitting offshore. Oil that was pumped to go on tankers was routed northwest from Baku to the Soviet city of Novorossiysk. Such things remained until the collapse of communism.
After Georgia declared its independence in 1991, it took over the oil revenue of a pipeline that emptied to its Black Sea port of Supsa. The output of that pipeline, however, is only 115,000 barrels per day, and in a world that demanded more and more, the demands for a bigger pipeline rose. That and, in the event of conflict with Russia, the Russian Navy could still blockade that port with relative ease.
Georgia had been in talks to be a country along the way of a new 1 million barrel per day pipeline that was to stretch from Baku to the Turkish port city of Ceyhan. That dream was realized in 2005 with the opening of the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan (or BTC) Pipeline. At any given point in time that single pipeline, the world's second longest, has 10 million barrels in it. Since the taps were first turned on in 2005, some 1.1 billion barrels of oil have flowed through that pipeline - and that's a whole lot of oil revenue that the Russians are missing out on.
Fast forward to today. The pipeline does not go much further north in Georgia than Tbilisi, but Tbilisi is now only 40 miles from the battle front, as the Russian Air Force extended the front lines of conflict to the central city of Gori, where Georgian troops and reservists have been massing for a counter-attack after being driven from the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali. Good portions of Gori have already been laid waste by Russian air power, and both warring parties have also destroyed significant portions of Tskhinvali. International groups such as Human Rights Watch have already warned of a looming humanitarian crisis, which only seems destined to come as the fighting rages on. Estimates of civilian causalities are already over 1,000 and are sure to rise.
It would appear that Georgia is making a play for serious Western involvement, as it is a nation that aspires to one day be a part of NATO as well as the European Union. Recent speeches given by the Georgian President show the Georgian and European Union flags in his background, so the symbolism is rather obvious. The South Ossetians, however, prefer to be allied with (and a part of) Russia, and so if energy concerns and money have nothing to do with this, it's still a good old classic proxy battle between the West and Russia, and may be explaining why the Georgians are hanging on as long as they have.
To be fair, however, Georgia hasn't been the most kind to opposition to the current political regime within its own country, as can be seen in this video from last November:
...and, around the same time, the shutdown of an opposition TV station by Georgian forces:
(For the record, I can't understand a word of it, but the tone in the voices says it all for me.)
Some more links:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_(country)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan_pipeline
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_South_Ossetia_War
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