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The prediction series continues on this time around with the first actual decline in the estimated number of electoral votes for Senator Obama since I've started doing this in early June. Delay hitting the panic button yet, however, as it is the usual suspect states (or in this case, state) flipping between leaning one way and the other, as is to be expected probably right up to election night.
Long story short, the numbers this time around are exactly the same as they were two weeks ago, except Florida is slotted under the Republican column this time around instead of the Democratic column.
There's still some tasty data to digest below, however, and I invite you over the jump.
Follow up:
While states haven't turned for Obama just yet, there has been a general weakening in the leads in some states under McCain's column - more so than there has been any significant weakening for states in Obama's column. Some drifting back toward the 50/50 split can be expected in any election that is perceived as close, and barring some gigantic disaster for either campaign, this is probably the general direction we will continue to float, at least until the veepstakes are done.
The McCain campaign may be on the edge of that disaster, however, as Senator Obama's trip around the world over the last week has gone a long way to make the "unknown" appear to be rather Presidential, as expertly laid out by Frank Rich over at the New York Times. So far in daily tracking polls, Senator Obama has seen his lead grow by as much as 5 or 6%, moving him up to a 49 - 40 lead in the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll - the largest lead for him in that poll since they started comparing the Obama/McCain matchup in early spring. Analysis by those far beyond my intellect in this arena show that, roughly, for every 5% increase in popular vote total, the number of electoral votes won jumps by 60.
If the 9 - 10% advantage in current national polling translates over to election day by the same popular vote margin, Senator Obama will be knocking on the door of 400 electoral votes. (If you take the current close states that are still for McCain from the map below, that would mean Obama would also go on to win all of McCain's close states, which would electorally translate to a 421 - 117 drubbing of McCain on election night.
State polls tend to lag national numbers, while national numbers are already factoring in reaction to Obama's landmark speech in Berlin last week, state polls haven't gotten there just yet. So while Obama's electoral numbers "peaked" at 358 two weeks ago there is, unbelievably still, more upside room for Obama to head into, probably much more upside than downside. Look for McCain to try to get the headlines back by rolling out his Vice Presidential nominee before the Olympics.
Now plenty teased, here is the big map for this time around.
The softening of Obama's numbers are evident in the states of New Hampshire and Colorado moving to "Lean Dem" from their perches atop "Favor Dem". In the case of Colorado, Quinnipiac actually found a lead for McCain for the first time this cycle by any major polling outlet - a lead of 2 points. This is six points below the range that Obama has been in for most of the season (+4 to +7), so time will tell if this poll was just an outlier or the start of a real trend in that state.
Florida flips back to "Lean Rep" this time around, but really it ought to just be listed as tied. To sum up my frustration with that state, I can do that in two results that have come out in the past seven days: Obama +2 (Rasmussen, July 22) and McCain +2 (ARG, June 20). Who knows.
In Nevada, for the first time this cycle, a major polling outfit has found Obama ahead of McCain - by a tantalizing two points (Rasmussen, July 16). This is outside of McCain's trend there (McCain +3 to +6), and so it will be taken with the same grain of salt as McCain's performance in Colorado until more evidence is seen over the coming weeks.
As for the remainder of notable results, I'll fire through those...
Alaska: McCain +5 (Rasmussen, July 17)
One of the supposed reddest states in the country continues to lay within reach of the Obama campaign, and in my opinion would still be worth a visit. Actually now moreso than two weeks ago. If Obama can stop off in Berlin, he can visit Anchorage.
Georgia: McCain +11 (Rasmussen, July 17)
Granted Rasmussen never really bought into the while Barr movement like the other pollsters did, apparently, but the Barr effect seems to have been more of a minor splash than a sea-change event for the Republican party - and they should be thanking their lucky stars every night for that, otherwise Barr taking 5 - 10% of their votes away could have led to an electoral slaughtering.
Mississippi: McCain +9 (Research 2000, July 22)
The amount of enthusiasm whipped up by the Obama campaign might not turn this state blue nationally, but it could have some notable down-ticket effects - namely getting the first Democratic Senator from that state elected since the 80's. Candidate Musgrove will be one of the notable beneficiaries of a Democratic landslide this fall - should the tide turn in that direction.
North Dakota: McCain +3 (Research 2000, July 22)
Two polls in North Dakota in a month? Looks like the state might finally be getting the attention that it deserves. The question isn't if Obama will spend there - he has the cash. The question is if McCain will be forced to divert valuable resources to playing defense in North Dakota. Once thought unthinkable, but then again no one thought that Obama would successfully challenge McCain on foreign policy too.
New Hampshire: Obama +4 (Rasmussen, July 23)
If McCain is going to get anything in the Northeast, it will be New Hampshire. While Obama's lead has eroded from 11 to 4 in the Rasmussen poll, McCain hasn't had a single positive result in that state since April 30th, and it's doubtful he'll see one any time soon.
New Mexico: Obama +6 (Rasmussen, July 24)
This meme about Hispanics not being able to vote for the black day has got to take root soon, right?
Virginia: Obama +2 (Public Policy Polling, July 19)
Virginia looks like it will be one of the closest sates this election. With the entire Washington establishment a stone's throw away, we can only pray there isn't a recount.
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