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The prediction series continues this week with a map rather similar to our last one, with the exception of three states flipping. Two of them don't do much electoral damage or benefit to either candidate (aside from psychological): Montana going blue and North Dakota going red. The biggest state flipping news comes from a state that is impossibly difficult to predict now, a month from now, election night, and depending on which voter machines are hacked, the results might still be in doubt by 2012. That would, of course, be the state of Florida - coming up on the blue side, if barely, this time.
The lack of movement in the map, outside of those three states, isn't so much due to each candidate digging in to their territory, but a summer vacation by the pollsters - with new data drying up around Independence Day. After the exhaustive (and expensive) primaries, can't really blame them for wanting to get a couple weeks of shut-eye in before the race to November. That, and we are also in a lull waiting for each candidate to pick their contender for Vice President, something that will be revealed, or heavily hinted, to us in the next 4 to 6 weeks. With that in mind & barring any epic gaffes on either side, the map ought to remain relatively stationary through the rest of July.
Now onto the data. Firstly starting up on the Canadian border states...
Follow up:
Back in February of this year, SurveyUSA did a poll of North Dakota which found Obama ahead by four points over McCain: 46 - 42. Since then we've heard a whole lot of nothing from the state, even though polls conducted in neighboring Montana (though themselves rather infrequent) showed Obama close, and polls in neighboring Minnesota showing that those showing up at the Republican National Convention may be the only McCain supporters in that state at that time (Obama by 17 in the most recent Quinnipiac poll from June 21). North Dakota has finally been polled again though, and it appears that the seemingly odd result from the state in February is actually right in line with how the state is shaping up right now - with McCain barely ahead of Obama, 47 - 46. I am going to go out on a limb and say this won't be the last we hear from the Peace Garden State.
Next door in Montana, Obama has taken the lead in the first poll conducted there since May - Obama leading McCain 48 - 43. Montana, North Dakota, and areas surrounding them in general tend to be more libertarian than other parts of the country, and the libertarian vote has drifted toward Obama in this cycle. It has certainly drifted away from McCain at least. The Independence Day tour that Obama did of that part of the country was not by accident and not just because the Obama Family wanted a vacation - he has a very real chance to do some damage there and potentially sweep all of the Canadian border states come November.
With results like this on top of results from last month showing Obama within reach in Alaska, it again puts the McCain campaign in a real interesting spot. While electorally those three states mentioned total all of nine electoral votes, McCain is going to need every electoral vote he can possibly muster to stay competitive this fall. Still, his campaign has stubbornly stuck to the idea that there is not a new map to fight on (like Obama maintains) and that we are looking at slight manipulations of the Bush/Kerry map. To that end you have bold predictions from the McCain camp like trying to steal Minnesota or Wisconsin from the Democrats. Those efforts have resulted in McCain seeing his deficit expand in Minnesota from 5 (SurveyUSA May 17) to 17 (Quinnipiac June 21) and in Wisconsin from him actually being ahead by 4 (Rasmussen May 5) to being down by 13 (Quinnipiac June 21). Though with not such violent swings, his camp's dreams of taking Ohio or Michigan are also fading away - at least until his Vice President announcement. If the McCain campaign is really hell bent on trying to attack Obama in his backyard, look for Michigan-not-quite-native-son Mitt Romney to be his selection, with then a focus to try and gain a foothold in Michigan and spread out from there.
Probably won't work, but just saying.
Down south, the Barr effect has been properly calculated into polls of the southern states, with little change seen since the inclusion of Barr in questions led to McCain's leads shrinking from double to single digits. A Rasmussen poll in Mississippi from June 24 shows McCain right where he was the month before - ahead by 6. The gap has narrowed for Obama in Alabama, but he still sees himself down by 13 (Capital Survey June 28). Georgia continues to flirt with swing state status, with a recent Insider Advantage poll showing Obama only behind by 2 as of July 2. Another months of results like that and Georgia might start getting the same attention that North Carolina and Virginia are getting.
Florida is the big state down south to flip though, but in exactly what direction it remains to be seen. From June 15 on there have been eight polls in Florida. Four show Obama leads (avg. 3.43%) and four show McCain leads (avg. 6.75%). As much as I would hate to slot a state in the "tie" category, if I had to Florida would be it. The big difference between now and 2004 or 2000 though is that Florida can remain tied all it wants. The election can be decided in the Tidewater and Rocky Mountain foothills before it needs to be decided in Florida.
Not quite flipping as often as Florida but still a confusing mess, depending on what week it is Obama is up or down by 5% in Missouri. This week Research 2000 says up by 5. But again, even if this state and Florida go for McCain, Obama still wins 320 - 218. Obama clearly has the most room to give, and knowing the nature of politics - especially from the right in recent cycles - they will throw everything they have at him to make him give that ground. As I said in the open though, look for things to remain rather quiet until the Veepstakes come to pass.
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