Iran: The Organic Movement

Allow me for a moment to take a trip to a foreign policy of yesteryear…

If only the Neocons could have gotten what they wanted…

In the analysis of the events in Iran thus far, there are a certain portion of politicos out there who can not look at what is happening on the ground in any other way than through the glasses of American involvement – whether we have just enough, too much, or not enough.

It has been six months since the beginning of the Obama Administration which means it has been six months since the standing foreign policy of the United States has been one of wandering on either side of being trigger happy. It was extremely easy to galvanize support in Iran against the United States – helped even more with the U.S.’s Army on countries that border the east and west of Iran. The establishment in Iran had a relatively easy time manipulating this support in whatever way they wanted to – as evidenced by political ideals from the reformist Mohammad Khatami giving away to the much more hard line rhetoric of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the election of 2005.

With the gloomy shadow of American imperialism fading away over the past few months – and with a President actively reaching out for support from countries that were regarded as “evil” only a few years ago – the strawman arguments faded. This allowed other issues to simmer to the top of Iranian politics – issues that have been there for quite a long time. First and foremost, and stop me if this sounds familiar, the state of the Iranian economy was on the forefront of many people’s minds. Iran’s economy is heavily dependent on the price of oil – so the dive in prices from $150 to $40 in the past year did not help things in the least. Add this to rising inflation (to 25%) and unemployment (rising to 12.5%) – and that alone is enough cause for concern extraordinary and discontent among the populace.

Also, running contrary to sterotypes of people in the region by some (the uneducated) in the west, Iran is not in fact a nation of backwards people clinging to the glory days of Medieval times, they are a nation of young people who have progressive feelings and want to see their country move forward in a more liberal and secular way. Being constrained by a figurehead that scoffs at the world when it comes to teasing about the desire to have nuclear weapons, denies the Holocaust, and rails against the West also does not help one’s re-electability when it comes to a people who are, as time goes on, more and more looking to more forward into the modern world. Mousavi grabbed ahold of these feelings as well as targeting the current religious establishment that makes successful attempts to enforce Islamic dress codes and social behavior. His election would have meant potential closer relations with the United States, a gradual weakening and/or isolating of the Islamic leadership, a bit more of a liberal society, economic modernization – pretty much everything that the people wanted.

…well, we can’t have that, can we?

The opportunistic among politicos in this country (read: desperate) complain that America does not have enough involvement in the current situation. President Obama has said that “something has happened in Iran” – toeing a very thin line between recognizing the plight of the people of Iran who are protesting their government, and trying as hard as is possible to not look like America is meddling in Iranian affairs. In an interview with CNBC’s John Harwood, he explains why this is a very good cource of action and explains it much better than I would have:

Well, I think first of all, it’s important to understand that although there is amazing ferment taking place in Iran, that the difference between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi in terms of their actual policies may not be as great as has been advertised. Either way, we were going to be dealing with an Iranian regime that has historically been hostile to the United States, that has caused some problems in the neighborhood and is pursuing nuclear weapons. And so we’ve got long-term interests in having them not weaponize nuclear power and stop funding organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas. And that would be true whoever came out on top in this election.

The second thing that I think is important to recognize is that the easiest way for reactionary forces inside Iran to crush reformers is to say it’s the US that is encouraging those reformers. So what I’ve said is, `Look, it’s up to the Iranian people to make a decision. We are not meddling.’ And, you know, ultimately the question that the leadership in Iran has to answer is their own credibility in the eyes of the Iranian people. And when you’ve got 100,000 people who are out on the streets peacefully protesting, and they’re having to be scattered through violence and gunshots, what that tells me is the Iranian people are not convinced of the legitimacy of the election. And my hope is that the regime responds not with violence, but with a recognition that the universal principles of peaceful expression and democracy are ones that should be affirmed

The most healthy thing the United States can do for the Iranian protesters is to let the situation play out as it is and to keep their commentary very limited, unless situations change that encourage it. To do otherwise would embolden the supporters of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and, in all likelihood, add to their ranks. The less we are involved, the better. The prospects for an ending or weakening of an oppressive regime through relatively peaceful means and, by the way, without a long and protracted war, should be mighty enticing considering how this decade has progressed so far.

Unfortunately the rosy-colored picture of a peaceful revolution has been and will continue to be punctuated by spasms of violence by the regime against its own people – and it still remains to be seen exactly how much of this the regime will ultimately target.

In all likelihood though, the lack of a threat of bombing by the United States – the removal of the bogeyman that can be used to scare the population into compliance with the government that is chosen for them – is a big help when it comes to this movement, and it is something that needs to be continued. Somewhere out there, the “bomb bomb bomb Iran” crowd is just that much more useless now than they were a week ago.